萨能奶山羊体尺性状的多元逐步回归分析与生长曲线拟合

doi:10.11843/j.issn.0366-6964.2023.12.038

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 旨在对萨能奶山羊的体尺性状进行多元逐步回归与生长曲线拟合分析,探究不同体尺间的相关与回归关系,并构建体尺性状的生长曲线,为揭示萨能奶山羊体尺的发育规律提供理论基础,为规模化羊场奶山羊选种选配和生产管理提供实际参考。研究以874只不同月龄、性别的健康萨能奶山羊为研究对象,测定了11个体尺性状,包括体高、体斜长、胸围和管围4个一般体尺性状;尻斜长、尻宽和睾丸周径3个反映公羊繁殖性能的性状;乳房围度、乳房深度、乳头间距和乳房距地面高度4个乳房性状。利用主成分分析分别对以上3类性状进行降维,通过多元逐步回归构建一般体尺性状对反映公羊繁殖性能性状和母羊乳房性状的回归方程,利用Bertalanffy模型对一般体尺性状进行生长曲线的拟合。结果表明:1)3类性状内部之间均存在极显著的相关性(P<0.01),且降维后第一个主成分均代表整体的外貌因子,母羊乳房性状中第二主成分可以解释为关于后躯高度的因子。2)一般体尺性状对反映公羊繁殖性能性状的多元逐步回归拟合度较高,为0.76~0.87,而对母羊乳房性状回归拟合度仅为0.15~0.40。3)Bertalanffy对一般体尺性状的拟合效果好,除母羊管围的拟合度为0.60,其余均在0.75以上,且公羊的体尺增长快于母羊。综上可知,萨能奶山羊体尺性状间存在相关性,公羊一般体尺性状可以较准确地预测反映公羊繁殖性能的性状,Bertalanffy模型可较好地拟合一般体尺性状。

关键词: 萨能奶山羊, 体尺性状, 回归分析, 主成分分析, 生长曲线

Abstract: This study aimed to conduct multiple stepwise regression and growth curve fitting analysis on the body measurement traits of Saanen dairy goats, explore the correlation and regression relationship between different body measurements, construct a growth curve for body measurement traits, so as to provide a theoretical basis for revealing the development patterns of Saanen dairy goats on body measurement, and provide practical reference for the selection and management of standardized farm of dairy goats. A total of 874 healthy Saanen dairy goats from different age of months and genders were used as the research subjects, and 11 body measurement traits were measured, including 4 general body measurement traits: body height, body length, chest circumference, and tube circumference; Three traits reflecting the reproductive performance of bucks: rump length, rump width, and testicular circumference; Four udder traits including udder circumference, udder depth, teat spacing, and udder height from the ground. Principal component analysis was applied to reduce the dimensions of the above three types of traits, and multiple stepwise regression was used to construct a regression equation for general body measurement traits reflecting reproductive performance traits of bucks and udder traits of does. The Bertalanffy model was used to fit the growth curve of general body measurement traits. The results indicated that: 1) There was a highly significant correlation (P<0.01) within the three types of traits, and the first principal component after dimensionality reduction represented the overall appearance factor among the three types of traits. The second principal component in does udder traits can be explained as a factor related to hindquarters height. 2) The regression fit of general body measurement traits to traits reflected buck reproductive performance was relatively high, ranging from 0.76 to 0.87, while the regression fit of udder traits of does was only 0.15 to 0.40. 3) Bertalanffy had a good fitting effect on general body measurement traits, except for a fitting degree of 0.60 for does tube circumference, all other traits were above 0.75, and the growth curves of bucks’ body measurement rose faster than that of does. In conclusion, there is a correlation between the body measurement traits of Saanen dairy goats, and the general body measurement traits of bucks can accurately predict the traits that reflected buck reproductive performance. The Bertalanffy model is good to fit the general body measurement traits in dairy goats.

Key words: Saanen dairy goat, body type trait, regression analysis, principal component analysis, growth curve

中图分类号:

S827.2

何志成, 秦晓晨, 吕永强, 李秀金, 边会龙, 罗军, 李聪. 萨能奶山羊体尺性状的多元逐步回归分析与生长曲线拟合[J]. 畜牧兽医学报, 2023, 54(12): 5301-5311.

HE Zhicheng, QIN Xiaochen, Lü Yongqiang, LI Xiujin, BIAN Huilong, LUO Jun, LI Cong. Multiple Stepwise Regression Analysis and Growth Curve Fitting of Body Measurement Traits in Saanen Dairy Goats[J]. Acta Veterinaria et Zootechnica Sinica, 2023, 54(12): 5301-5311.

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