我国猪丹毒疫情的时空特征及其影响因素

doi:10.11843/j.issn.0366-6964.2023.06.031

Abstract

Abstract: Swine erysipelas is an infectious disease caused by Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae which endangers breeding industry. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution pattern and influencing factors of swine erysipelas in China can provide reference for early warning and prevention and control measures of swine erysipelas in the future. In this study, 31 provincial administrative regions of China were selected as the study area, and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the incidence of erysipelas in China from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed by combining H-P filtering, spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio-temporal scanning statistics. Meanwhile, MGWR, GWR and OLS model were used to explore the spatial impact of social and climatic factors on the incidence of erysipelas in China. The results show that: In terms of time, the epidemic showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, the seasonal index of case numbers was greater than 120% in June-September and less than 90% in January-April. Spatially, there was a significantly spatial positive correlation in the number of cases per year (Moran's I value ranged from 0.127 to 0.295). The first-level agglomerations detected by spatio-temporal scanning during 2010-2014 and 2015-2020 were 5 and 4, respectively. The agglomerations occurred from June to August, and the agglomerations tended to move southward. The results of comparing multiple models show that the MGWR model has the best fitting effect (R² ranged from 0.43 to 0.84). Wind speed, temperature, road density, number of live pigs, and the proportion of rural population can significantly affect swine erysipelas cases to a certain extent, and the influencing factors in different regions have different fluctuation directions and intensities. Our results indicated that the epidemic distribution has obvious aggregation in time and space. The outbreak mainly occurred in the southeastern part of China. Wind speed and rural population ratio are the main factors affecting swine erysipelas cases.

Key words: swine erysipelas, spatio-temporal characteristics, spatio-temporal scanning, influencing factors, multiscale geographically weighted regression model

CLC Number:

S851.31

WANG Jingyu, FAN Shuqi, LI Cheng, YIN Ning, ZHUANG Binxian, LIU Huiming, WEN Yongxian. Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Swine Erysipelas Epidemic in China[J]. Acta Veterinaria et Zootechnica Sinica, 2023, 54(6): 2528-2542.

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Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Swine Erysipelas Epidemic in China

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