肉牛胃肠道甲烷排放模型估算精度的评估分析

doi:10.11843/j.issn.0366-6964.2017.04.012

Abstract

Abstract:

This study was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of 6 classic models to predict the enteric methane emissions in beef cattle and analyze the factors affecting predictive accuracy of models. Seventeen Xiangzhong Black cattle were selected in the Hunan Wangcheng beef farm, to measure body weight, dry matter and nutrients intake, enteric methane emissions in two stages. The selected 6 classic models included: equations developed by dry matter intake (DMI), such as Model 1 [CH₄(MJ·d^-1)=1.246×DMI(kg·d^-1)+0.996] and Model 2 [CH₄(MJ·d^-1)=-2.07+2.636×DMI(kg·d^-1)-0.105×DMI²(kg·d^-1)]; equations developed by fiber intake, such as Model 3 [CH₄(MJ·d^-1)=5.58+0.848×NDF(kg·d^-1)] and Model 4 [CH₄(MJ·d^-1)=3.41+0.520×DMI(kg·d^-1)-0.996×ADF(kg·d^-1)+1.15×NDF(kg·d^-1)]; equations developed by gross energy intake (GEI), such as Model 5 [CH₄(MJ·d^-1)=0.065×GEI(MJ·d^-1)] and Model 6 [CH₄(MJ·d^-1)=0.081×GEI(MJ·d^-1)-0.024]. Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) and Consistent Correlation Coefficient (CCC) methods were employed to evaluate the prediction accuracy, and factors influencing the accuracy were also discussed. The result showed that: Model 5 (CCC=0.86) had the highest prediction accuracy among 6 models, next for Model 1 (CCC=0.74) and 6 (CCC=0.79), the lowest for Model 2 (CCC=0.66), 3 (CCC=0.22) and 4 (CCC=0.54). Model 1 and 2 had overall bias of 48.8% and 70.3%, respectively. Model 3 had greatest deviation of regression slope from unity (47.6%), while Model 4 had 28.6% deviation of regression slope from unity and 29.2% overall bias. The current results indicate that Model 5 developed by GEI based on world-wide data by IPCC (2006) Tier 2 is the most accurate model to predict the enteric methane emissions in beef cattle.

CLC Number:

MAO Hong-xiang, GAO Feng-xian, WANG Min, JIANG Zai-yang, ZHANG Xiu-min, LONG Dong-lei, WANG Rong, TAN Zhi-liang. Evaluating the Accuracy of Models to Predict Enteric Methane Emissions in Beef Cattle[J]. ACTA VETERINARIA ET ZOOTECHNICA SINICA, 2017, 48(4): 690-698.

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Evaluating the Accuracy of Models to Predict Enteric Methane Emissions in Beef Cattle

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