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Risk Approximate Based Studies on the Current Status of Global Pattern of African Swine Fever and Its Import Risk Model
- ZHANG Zhi-cheng;HUANG Jiong;BAO Jing-yue;ZHANG Yong-qiang;ZHONG Qi;WANG Li-jian;WANG Zhi-liang;LI Chang-you
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2011, 42(1):
82-91.
doi:
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Global pattern of current status of African swine fever (ASF) were explored, and its import risk model were constructed and derived. Based on the data mining techniques and probability risk theory, methods of Geography risk analysis, the first law of geography and risk approximate theory were applied in this manuscript Results were as follows: In Global Scale, the swine production were mainly distributed in China, United States, Brazil, Canada, German, Spain, and French，the combination swine inventory of above country account for 76.67% of global proportions，among which most density region were Spain, German, Netherlands and Belgium in EU，and China, Vietnam in Asian. Based on the Toble’s first law of geography, “risk approximate” were introduced in this manuscript for the animal disease risk management and vet epidemiology, it’s means that risk can be more approximated in the neighborhood than in distance. ASF have been recorded reported at least 89 frequency globally up to now, among which the countries like GuineaBissau, Namibia, Russia, Senegal, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Ghana, Italy, Madagascar, Mozambique and Togo have three years consecutive reported cases of ASF since 2007. Based on the Toble’s first law of geography and risk approximated theory, the population above can be regarded as the most risk population country for African swine fever Import swine and its products from countries at risk of ASF can pose risk to the imported countries, the imported risk (one batch of imported products) model can be depicted as follows:PInport=f1·(1-Se)+(1-f1)·f2·(1-Se)+(1-f1)·(1-f2)·f3·(1-Se)+(1-f1)·(1-f2)·(1-f3)·f4·(1-Se)+(1-f1)·(1-f2)·(1-f3)·(1-f4)·f5·(1-Se), among which f1 was the most weighted risk for import, it imply the importance of local quarantine or export quarantine before the movement of animal or animal products. Currently, the most risks of ASF were mainly coming from the countries in Guinea Bissau, Namibia, Russia, Senegal, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Ghana, Italy, Madagascar, Mozambique and Togo, next were Cameroon, Congo, Malawi, Rwanda, Uganda, Angola, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia. Potential risk can be imported if import swine or its products from countries at risks of ASF. Enforcing the efficiency of local quarantine or export quarantine，and initiate the geographical risk classification were most important to the risk management of ASF.
